Thursday, September 25, 2008

Garth heads off the deep end

You see Garth knows more then everyone else. Everyone else. Every. One. Else. And in his usual self, is very dismissive and insulting....sweater talk indeed. Whatever drives hits buddy.

The housing mess: If you happen to live in Edmonton, you might have noticed your house is worth $60,000 less than last year. Ditto for Calgary. The condo market is staggering, homes are sitting on the market for 100 or 200 days, and prices are falling half a per cent more every 30 days.

This is also sneaking into Vancouver and Toronto, and even infecting Saskatoon and The Peg. In fact, the US real estate contagion we were told could never come here, has. But don’t try to convince some folks in Alberta about it. They’d rather listen to Sweaterman tell them everything’s okay.

So, I did battle for a while today on CBC Radio in that province, where a bunch of callers just can’t handle the thought that the Harper gang – with their bloated government spending, high dollar policy, income trusticide, 0/40 mortgage loans and love of income taxes – have paved the way for a multi-year equity crunch here. Truth is, Alberta’s at risk. So’s Ontario.


So you're saying the bubble is bursting in some of the massively overheated zones? That has been called for for months, localized bursts are not the same as the massive widespread meltdown as is happening in the States.

What does CHMC say about housing prices in Ontario for example? The average MLS price in Ontario will rise by 2.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent in 2008 and 2009 respectively, as the rate of price growth follows the same cyclical trend as sales.
That is in Ontario.

Also, you are paying less income tax now then when the Liberals were in power. 0/40 mortgages are now out again, their days are numbered. They will be disallowed on 15 October. These mortgages were only allowed for 2 years, our charted banks were not super aggressive.

Nearly every expert on the economy and housing market says we are not in the same position as the US.

The Bank of Canada has said repeatedly our banking and financial systems are much better capitalized then our American counter parts. Can we be affected by the US crisis? Yes, 80% of our economy is tied to the US, but our overall economy is still strong despite problems in manufacturing.

And Garth, the strong dollar is hard for manufactures, but good for consumers, it helps to shield us from inflation on the price of imports and gas. It's a double edged sword.

You are being unduly alarmist, but really, that shouldn't surprise us.

6 comments:

wilson said...

''The condo market is staggering, homes are sitting on the market for 100 or 200 days, and prices are falling half a per cent more every 30 days.''

Don't cry too big a tear The Garth, about all those condos sitting on the market in Edmonton.

INVESTORS bought up many apartment blocks,
booted out tenants (gave then 6 months to 1 years notice, depending on their lease)
renovated and dumped 2000 'apartment condos' on the market over an 18 month period.
And that's a fact.

And yes,housing has dropped %60,000. So now when a homeowner sells their 1970 1100 sq ft bungalow that they bought for $205k in 2003, they are only getting $310,00 when they sell.
Again, no big tears there.

And INVESTORS are sitting on a pile of resale houses, and builders sitting on overpriced spec homes. Boohoo.
They both made millions in the last 3 years, and can ride it out.

Paul MacPhail said...

There's something wrong with Garth's site tonight, besides Garth. His delete button must not be working for the comments section. Seems to be that everyone is calling him out tonight. Do ya suppose his blackberry is out of commission?

Anonymous said...

Dude,

Garth may be an snarky pessimist, but if you are trying to debunk his arguments, at least refrain from making him look good via revealing yourself as an uninformed gas bag.

Because when it comes to real estate, Garth knows more than most people, and quite obviously more than you.

You rely on your gleanings of what "experts say". Nice. CHMC was until early this year saying there would be NO RE decline. None. Nada. CHMC's projections for 08 and 09 have already been debunked by...by...CHMC. Ontario has already posted a net loss for 08, and yet you trust their crystal ball for 09?!?

You say: "as the rate of price growth follows the same cyclical trend as sales." Huh?

You repeatedly cite the vested governmental interests as your authority for your claims. Grow up.

The reason Canadian financial institutions are better capitalized than their US counterparts is because the Canadian RE decline is about 18 - 24 months behind that of the US...US banks' balance sheets were fine, too, until RE sank far enough.

It is fine to dislike Garth Turner for whatever petty reason you do. But to dismiss his argument without one of your own is embarassing. The only reason you get any traffic is because you used Garth's name.

All I can wish for you is that you and your family buy up as much RE as you can get your hands on, ASAP. You deserve it, buddy!

AnonymousCoward said...

Anon: Well, I am only pulling information from the experts, CHMC, Bank of Canada Governor etc.

Garth has a vested interest to blow things out of proportion.

Are things perfect? No, are they doomsday? Again, no.

Anonymous said...

Here's some of Garth's past nuggets of advice

November 2000

"So, here's a strategy: If you own Nortel, or a mutual fund holding it, don't bail out now. We are near, but not at, the low point. If you do not own Nortel, then this is the time to start accumulating it, or a good science and technology fund with exposure to the company. If you're a gambler, then roll the dice and leverage. If you're a wimp, don't read or watch any news for the next six weeks."

February 2004

"Is Nortel stock worth holding? Absolutely. Just don't drool on it."

Anonymous said...

From the most corrupt biased source possible on the subject:
PAST THE PEAK?
Average house price in the city of Toronto
Aug. 2006 $344,419
Aug. 2007 $381,681
Aug. 2008 $377,990
Volume of sales
Aug. 2006 2,706
Aug. 2007 3,243
Aug. 2008 2,437

SOURCE: REAL ESTATE BOARD