Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Dion the 6 billion dollar man

The Liberals keep adding to their spending promises, in today's announcement regarding post-secondary education and research the Liberal's promised at least 1.7 billion in new spending.

The total estimated cost is not in the press release, so I took out my trusty calc.exe and did it myself. Note I am not an economist, so if I got something wrong let me know...in a civil manner.

simplifying support measures for students by replacing complicated and often irrelevant tax credits that don’t benefit students with an education grant that will be delivered four times a year, putting money in the hands of students when they need it most;
For frosh week? :) The cost for this is below.

providing 200,000 needs-based bursaries of up to $3,500 per year by the fourth year of our plan to help reduce the number of Canadians for whom cost remains an insurmountable barrier to education;

200,000 * 3,500 = 700,000,000

providing 100,000 access grants of up to $4,000 per year by the fourth year of our plan for those who are members of groups that are traditionally under-represented in post-secondary education;

100,000 * 4,000 = 400,000,000

Running total: 1,100,000,000

ensuring that every student is eligible for a $5,000 student loan regardless of parental income; and

Cost? Not sure. Won't estimate.

Running total: 1,100,000,000

guaranteeing a lower interest rate for all student loans, extending the grace period on repayment post graduation from six months to two years, making that grace period interest-free and extending the time that individuals have to repay their student loans.

Cost? Not sure. Again won't estimate.

increasing support for the indirect costs of university-based research by more than 60 per cent to $500 million a year;

This works out to be an additional 188 million, thanks to a reader for fixing my calculation.

Running total: 1,288,000,000

enhancing support for Canada’s three granting councils by 34 per cent;
Cost?

creating an Interdisciplinary Sustainability Fund of $100 million to enable scientists, researchers and graduate students to undertake projects that extend beyond the barrier of their disciplines; and

Running total: 1,388,000,000

extending the tax credit for private sector research and development so that even companies who are not currently making a profit will have an incentive to invest in research and development.

Cost?

So far, one press release, 1,388,000,000 dollars.

Today, the Liberals also announced early learning and child care spending.

At full implementation, the federal investment will climb to $1.25 billion annually.

Running Total: 2,638,000,000 dollars

The next part of the press release adds this:
Today’s announcement is in addition to a commitment that a new Liberal government will maintain the $100-a-month cheques that some families have come to rely on. We will also introduce a new refundable child tax credit worth $350 to families for every child under 18. A new Liberal government will also provide up to $1,225 per year to Canada’s poorest families through a new Guaranteed Family Supplement.

Guaranteed Family Supplement cost: 482,000,000 (year 4)
Universal Child Tax Benefit: 2,878,000,000 (year 4)

These are from the Green Shift PDF.

Running Total: 5,998,000,000 dollars (not all in year 1)

Note, these expenses are not all in year one of the spending, but at the end of year 4, this is where it is at. This is also an estimate as I didn't (couldn't) estimate all the costs.

This is a boatload of money. For someone accusing Harper about emptying the cupboard and running close to deficit (which is not a bad thing!) Dion sure likes to spend!

Spend! Spend! Spend!

We're better off with Harper.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

ensuring that every student is eligible for a $5,000 student loan regardless of parental income; and

Cost? Not sure. Won't estimate.

how about 5k x 500k per year for 4-5 years unless they become professional or lifetime students avoiding ever having to pay back a student loan... I turned 40 this year and have friends with multiple degrees to pull that scam already...

so
5k x 4 years+ x say a 500k students in the national systems across all of canada not counting immigrants as we don't know if it will include or exclude non-Canadians... you're at 20 billion over 4 years of which 1/2 will default...

great plan...who's garranteeing the loans? AIG???

Anonymous said...

Keep in mind too that in Feb. 2008 the Tories estimated Dion's promises at that time to be $68-98 billion.

He must be over $100 billion by now.

Anonymous said...

However, I am POSITIVE that your little hero's shovelling of north of $20billion just before the election is a continuation of the "prudent fiscal discipline" that his gov't was showing over the past year as gov't program spending was rising at FOUR TIMES THE RATE OF INFLATION.

I guess the fact that none of the Con front bench has any actual experience in running a business or meeting a payroll is some excuse, but it is a pretty lame one.

Don't think you can win this argument, as Harper's spending has made the latter days of the Martin government - which became a spending machine - look like amateurs.

John M Reynolds said...

"increasing support for the indirect costs of university-based research by more than 60 per cent to $500 million a year" indicates that it was about 312 already, so the increase should be only 188 million not the full 500

Anonymous said...

Harpers spending simply shows how much the Liebrals were over taxing Canadians if the money was available and we're not into the negatives...and theses promises Harper and everyone is making are all spread out over a time base of several years... he's shifted tax freedom day back 12 days already...

The Liebrals have already said they'd cancel everything Harper and company have implemented over the last 3 years... the longest a minority gov't has functioned in Canada's history... No ones talking about how much that's going to cost Canadians... Does that mean part of Dyon's budget is clawing back the $100 a month I've received the last 2 years for my 2 year old... to pay for their 15 years of broken Liebral promisses regarding universal daycare/state run baby sitting? We don't know because they haven't actually release a copy of their costed plan for anyone to review because it's like every other "red book" of the last half century...

I prefer to choose for myself how my child is raised thank you very much... not pay more money to a burocrat in Ottawa to sit in a committy for 2 years deciding if it's the daycares responsibility to change my kids shity diapers... All that while they're being baby sat by a 20 something social worker...Oops, correction... A bylingual social worker whos more interested in talking about some guy she met at some bar over the weekend then change a diaper on a child that's obviously upset because they've dumped what ammounts to the same thing as Dion's Green shift plan in their pants...

Anonymous said...

So umm, then what business has Stephane Dion run sucessfully? (Oh yeah, and what country is Stephan a citizen of?)

Paul Martin ran a sucessful shipping business. Do you remember him? So, I am not convinced that having run a business is a pre-requisite to being in gov't. Unless you want the government to BE in business.

You just showed your true colours.

AnonymousCoward said...

anon@10:32

However, I am POSITIVE that your little hero's shovelling of north of $20billion just before the election is a continuation of the "prudent fiscal discipline" that his gov't was showing over the past year as gov't program spending was rising at FOUR TIMES THE RATE OF INFLATION.

North of 20 billion? Please show me the links. Also, you forget, that it was not NEW spending. It was announcements/re-announcements out of existing budgets. Not new spending. Already budgeted spending.

I guess the fact that none of the Con front bench has any actual experience in running a business or meeting a payroll is some excuse, but it is a pretty lame one.
And Stephane Dion does? Bob Rae? Iggy?

Don't think you can win this argument, as Harper's spending has made the latter days of the Martin government - which became a spending machine - look like amateurs.
I shall clue you in. Re-equipping the military with tools they need is expensive. Finally settling the long standing residential school program settlement is expensive. Ect Ect.

Anonymous said...

From Canadian Taxpayers Federation. And this number (19.2 billion) was before some of the latest ones like the baird/Solberg $1.9 billion.

http://www.taxpayer.com/main/news.php?news_id=2958


September 10, 2008

Taxpayers Federation Updates Conservative’s Pre-Election Spending to $19.2-billion


Conservative spending promises
OTTAWA: The Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) today updated its tally of pre-election spending announcements made by the Conservative government to $19.2-billion. The timetable is June 2nd to September 6th, the day before the start of the federal election campaign. This is roughly $198-million a day and more than $8.2-million every hour.


I guess the bottom line is that the "new" conservatives like spending and massive spending is ok as long as it is done by fellow "conservatives".

AnonymousCoward said...

anon, come on. Get a grip.

It was not new or un-budgeted money.

It was not new or un-budgeted money.

It was not new or un-budgeted money.

Hence, not really pre-election spending. Of course, going back to June is stretching too. Why not go back to 2006. They have been in election mode since then.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for making my point for me -
apparently conservative overspending is "good" by definition, while other parties spending is bad.

How principled!

AnonymousCoward said...

Anon, the budget was approved by parliament, if it was bad, surely the Liberals would have voted it down?

John M Reynolds said...

A new Liberal government would invest $70 billion over a decade in infrastructure projects, including transit and new sports and recreation facilities.

http://www.thesudburystar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1206731

I hope that is a typo. Seven billion a year? wow.

Anonymous said...

7 billion a year over 10 years... that's like 35 gun registry's...cool