Sunday, October 5, 2008

Liberal's within 4%?!

Nanos has the Liberal's within 4 points. Sound the alarm?

I get that Nanos is supposed to be the be all end all of pollsters but why is he always considered right?

Nanos has the Liberals within four points, but every single other poll shows a completely different story.

Methodology can only account for so much, Harris-Decima, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid tell a completely different story.

Of course Nanos always polls lower for the Conservatives on weekends so I guess we will see what is going on with the polls on Monday and Tuesday.

So who do we believe? Nanos or everyone else?

We're better off with Harper.

20 comments:

grady said...

The Liberals are running a campaign that suggests they cant possibly be within 4%.
If they were why would they be campaigning in their own safe ridings and campaigning very aggressively against the NDP.
Lets hope with this poll the margin of error rule applies and remember 34 could mean 31-37 and the Liberals 30 could mean 27-33 and with this range Nanos matches Harris Decima and the others.

Anonymous said...

Nanos is considered right because he is the most accurate.

Harper is going down, badly. The Conservatives should have had a platform. Having a plan is more persuausive than the Dion cheapshots.

wilson said...

Nanos also has the Greens lower than any other pollster, because his survey is not multiple choice. When the Green Party isn't mentioned, less say GP unprompted.

All the polls in Alberta said Stelmach was going to lose seats but retain government....Stelmach increased his majority.

If Cons internal polls told them Lib's were within 4%, PMSH would be campaigning today.

AnonymousCoward said...

anon@9:47

Is it? The Liberal plan had no traction until the cheap shots began against Harper.

You know the ones, calling him Bush, and uncaring etc

wilson said...

You'll see the costed platform on Tuesday anon.
Duceppe has gone ballistic,
(heh, who spilled the beans that Cons and Libs are strategic voting in Quebec to stop the Bloc!!)
Dion is visiting ridings that won last election by 8000 votes,
PMSH spent the day with his family. who sounds like they are going down?

Anonymous said...

It's not just about the current numbers, it's about trends in numbers over time.

I wouldn't make an election outcome prediction until Saturday.

Surecure said...

Looking at this, it could be a brilliant game of check-mate for Harper to release his platform 1 week from the election date. With the rest of the parties having nothing else to announce, the Conservative platform could dominate the news for the entire last week of the campaign. That alone will give them a bit of a bump.

I'm not going to place a bet on anything. I do think that Harper et al have made some serious blunders on this campaign. But, one week is an eternity in politics. And that may be all that Harper needs.

wilson said...

Curious that the CPC numbers go down and PMSHs personal numbers took a big jump up.
Didn't the same thing happen last weekend?

Does Nanos ask which party you would vote for, then asks participants to rate the leaders next?

Anonymous said...

Former PMPM, just days before the previous election, declared that the Liberals would win the biggest majority in Canadian history, according to the polls.

AnonymousCoward said...

wilson yes.

Harper's numbers go down on the weekend. I don't know why?

Maybe the people who don't like Harper are now home to answer the phone?

Anonymous said...

Wilson is a paid conservative operative. His job is to troll the blogs and leave CPoC talking points.

It's well known. Wilson works for the PMO.

grady said...

I am angry at Harper. If he doesnt get at least 145 plus seats this time THIS SHOULD BE HIS LAST ELECTION!!!!!!!!
HE HAS RUN AGAINST THE WEAKEST LEADER THE LIBERALS WILL EVER PUT UP AND THE WORST PLATFORM THEY EVER HAD: CARBON TAX.
He is a good Prime Minister but is JUST NOT LIKED BY MOST PEOPLE.
Urban Canada just does not like him and never will.A lot of conservatives wont want to hear this but taking the progressive out of conservative in both name, policy and type of leader is what has kept this party from a majority.

Anonymous said...

If Nanos' poll is correct, it is quite a lackadaisical or un-informed electorate we have in this country.

When will we learn?

Big "sigh" for Canada.

AnonymousCoward said...

grady, that's a good point. However also remember the so-called progressives have been demonizing him since at least 2004.

Mutton Chops said...

The Libs had a great day of polling on Thursday after the french debate. They jumped 5% in one day. On a three day rolling average that translates into a 15% jump on that day alone. Tomorrow that day will be gone. I suspect that the Libs will drop 2-3% tomorrow. If they don't I will be concerned.

grady said...

I am not demonizing Harper I am only stating a fact look at the most successful parties in the last century and look where they were on the political spectrum.
My 2 examples are the federal Liberals up until 2004 and the provincial progressive conservatives in Ontario.
Both parties governed from the centre and moved slightly left or right when times dictated it. The progressive conservatives in Ontario were in power for 42 straight years until they chose a leader: Frank Miller who was seen as too right of centre.
What good is conservative ideology unless one has power to impliment it and the only way to do that is to appear moderate. Harper is not seen as moderate by Toronto and Montreal voters.
The next leader should be from the progressive conservative side of the party: Bernard Lord or maybe even Jean Charest again. He would obviously win a lot of seats from Quebec. I am not digging Harpers grave here but only saying if he was seen as moderate by urban people especially urban women
this election would be long over
it would have given him 180 seats plus but without Toronto and Montreal its minority again.

AnonymousCoward said...

grady I know you are not demonizing Harper.

Mike Harris in Ontario was not governing from the centre, he was governing from the right.

As for a new leader for the Conservatives, I am not sure either Charest or Lord will help much.

Charest would go over well the RoC, but it is hard to predict how he would do in Quebec. Remember, he barely held onto his minority government in the last provincial election there.

He has also been too much of a PITA for many on the party who lean more right.

Same with Lord, he lost his province within two elections.

I like both of these guys, and I remember watching Charest in the leaders debates for the PCs back in the day.

Not sure they can do it for the Conservatives though, what about Prentice?

grady said...

I actually should not have proposed Charest for future leader because I am extremely p-ssed off with him.
WHAT IS HE DOING TO HELP HARPER AND THE CONS. IN THIS ELECTION D--K ALL!!!!!!! AND HARPER KEPT HIM IN POWER ALTHOUGH WITH A MINORITY BY FIXING THE FISCAL IMBALANCE RIGHT BEFORE THE LAST QUEBEC ELECTION. I AM SURPRISED I HAVE NOT HEARD ANYONE MENTION THIS ANYWHERE IN THE PRINT OR TV MEDIA.
HARPER HELPED CHAREST. WHERE IS CHAREST NOW THAT HARPER NEEDS HIM.
THE QUEBEC LIBERAL PARTY HAS ALWAYS BEEN INDEPENDANT FROM THE FEDERAL PARTY. AND IN 1988 BOURASSA DID EVERYTHING BUT COME OUT AND TELL PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR MULRONEY. HE LENT HIS WHOLE PROVINCIAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PC'S IN 1988 PLUS WITH THE CONSERVATIVE AND MULRONEY POPULARITY THEY GOT 62 SEATS THERE.
SURELY CHAREST COULD AT LEAST COME OUT AND TELL PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR THE STRONGEST FEDERAL PARTY IN QUEBEC TO OPPOSE THE BLOCK.
WOULD THAT KILL HIM TO AT LEAST DO THAT.
IF I WAS HARPER I WOULD BE ON THE PHONE WITH CHAREST AND SAY, "HEY BUDDY, LEND ME A HAND HERE."

wilson said...

''Wilson is a paid conservative operative. His job is to troll the blogs and leave CPoC talking points.
It's well known. Wilson works for the PMO.''

LOL I never know what to do with that declaration from Ti-Guy.
Believe it or not (I don't care which), I have never even gone to a Refrom/Alliance/CPC meeting or rally.

What I am is an NEP survivor.

Lost 2/3 of our farm, family lost their business, and we literally had to start over from nothing, thanks to Liberals.

No paycheck can motivate a person like being an NEP survivor, except possibly a Rae Days survivor.

wilson said...

''Harper is not seen as moderate by Toronto and Montreal voters.
The next leader should be from the progressive conservative side of the party''

Toronto and Montreal is moderate?
You're kidding right?

Why would you want Montreal and Toronto deciding what's good for the ROC? If you do, you are in the wrong party man.

News flash:
Margret Atwood and Gilles Duceppe and Buzz will NEVER vote Conservative.
These are not what you call moderates.
And anyone the above 3 would vote for, does not represent me.