The numbers from EKOS are still holding for the Conservatives. This is positive, but the rest of the pollsters still show some relative strength for the Conservatives.
- Conservative 35%
- Liberal 24%
- NDP 20%
- Green 11%
- Bloc Québécois 10%
But
Nanos is not reflecting that, at least not yet.
- Conservative Party 33 (-1)
- Liberal Party 29 (-2)
- NDP 20 (+2)
- BQ 11% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
And now, Harris-Decima, nationally, over the last four nights:
- Conservatives 31%,
- Liberals 27%
- NDP 20%
- Green Party 12%
- BQ 8%
The only significant difference between EKOS and Nanos is in the Liberal and Green support. How do we explain the difference? They are both daily tracking polls over three days, the only difference is the EKOS uses a much larger sampling size. Nanos has the best track record.
All three are daily tracking polls, the EKOS has the biggest sample size.
So, who do we believe?
8 comments:
Its simple really, Nanos Research has a reputation of being lazy when it comes to polling, often calling less than 500 and only in Montreal where the Bloc and Liberal dominate.
Clearly shoddy work if ever.
For the last two years the Conservatives have had 35% support, any number below that is not to be believed. Nothing would explain a core Conservative voter moving to any other party.
Also it was funny that just before the election their support went up to 38-39%, so now, when they drop back to 35%, the media can claim they have dropped dramatically from their previous high.
Smoke and mirrors.
Call me partisan...
But I like the EKOS numbers
With upward trending over the week-end....
Nanos has nailed the last two elections to within the decimal point. I wouldn't call them lazy. In fact, I'd say they are probably about right. Look at the headlines. The media has jumped on the narrative that the Conservatives are "plummeting" while Dion's Liberals are "surging", and they're playing that theme for all it's worth. Harper will be lucky to hold onto a minority position.
I really wish Harper had run a better campaign. There's just something really lacking from the Conservative campaign this time around, and I can't really put my finger on it. The message hasn't been as tight. The attempts to control the media have been clumsy, obvious and downright embarrassing. We've got to do better than that.
We already know that for Conservatives to win, we need to be twice as good as the Liberals, just to overcome the media's leftist bias. Well we haven't been.
Couple of things to remember:
1. If this is the last week of campaigning, what we're probably seeing is the effects of a stepping-up of the ground game at the local level. The NDP has always been good at the ground game, while good exposure from the debates has energized the Greens considerably.
2. It's a bit of an irony, but if you're going to focus on leadership, you can't just play up the negatives of your primary opponent without putting as much (if not more) emphasis on your own virtues. That sort of task would certainly be easier if Harper were more charismatic or extroverted, but it's more troublesome if you come across as *disengaged*, which I think is how Canadians saw him during the debates.
"It's a bit of an irony, but if you're going to focus on leadership, you can't just play up the negatives of your primary opponent without putting as much (if not more) emphasis on your own virtues. "
And that is it in a nutshell. When this is all said and done, the Tories need to look at who is running their campaign and make some big changes.
I mean - Canadians got it that Dion wasn't a leader - the Tories had 6 weeks to let Canadians know why Stephen Harper was a leader; yet they chose to keep on Dion.
After a while it becomes old and tired and people start to say -hey how come they are focusing so much on that other guy - what is behind the sweater vest that they are not telling us.
I know, I know - that sounded like a typical left wing supporter, however as Tories, we have to ask what were they thinking in not having Stephen Harper just being himself.
Harper comes across as a control freak, conniving and a vicious attack dog. What he lacks this time is the moral indignation foundation that adscam gave him last time. In a sense, the public gave Harper permission to rip Paul Martin over adscam. But this election, the negative attacks on Dion make Harper look like a jerk. The negative attacks combined with the conniving (chessplayer) persona makes Harper look like a dark will-do-anything-to-get elected guy. The sweater vest schtick makes it look like he is putting lipstick on a pig. Like he is not being honest about who he is to Canadians.
The CONS should have run more hockey dad pictures showing Harper shaking hands with his kids ha ha ha ha
Raging Ranter the falling polls and the media coverage are self-fulfilling prophecies. They feed off each other.
It is the same idea as why having Jack and Dion play up the economic crisis is such a bad idea, the economy is more about perception then reality, Harper understands this, Dion doesn't.
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