Here we go again. The Conservatives are back in their normal range of about 34% and the pollsters and MSM are spinning this as a massive loss for the Tories and a gain for the Liberals.
Smart political watchers know that this see-saw affect is very normal for the Conservatives and Liberals. Liberals do/say something stupid like threaten an election or a coalition and the Liberals drop, and the Conservatives gain. This has happened many times over the past 4 years.
If I remember correctly, pollsters and pundits used to bash the Conservatives for not having a bigger lead (when at about 34%) over the Liberals back in 2006 during the Liberal leadership race. The rational being that the Liberals were rudderless/leaderless/whatever and they should be easy pickings.
But, the Conservatives tend to poll in the mid-thirties, and out campaign the opposition during an election.
While I am sure that the "prorogation effect" has had an affect on their poll numbers, I don't think the Conservatives would be in the high thirties or low forties right now as the Liberals haven't threatened to bring down the Government in a few months.
This is just the way it is.
I would say the Conservatives are doing OK considering the full-on assault many in the MSM have launched against them.
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Just off the top of my head, here are the antagonists in this gang up on Harper, since Copenhagen--Charest, McGuinty, the Eco-Twits harassing Prentice, the Economist magazine, the university profs, the Facebook dude, CBC bloggers, and so on. Even some of our usually friendly commentators piled on because of the prorogue--Tom Flanagan and the Calgary Herald editorialist.
So all that negative messaging against us is bound to make some voters have second thoughts about Harper. So be it. But I'm not much worried, mainly because of the disunited Opposition Parties. And I would bet my bottom dollar that 145 MPs won't vote against the budget. Harper is probably safe for about a year.
The bar is always set way higher for Conservatives than it is Liberals. Look at Harper's handling of Haiti, which should have the media gushing effusively. But they just give him grudging praise.
34% is up from the 31% reported earlier this week by EKOS. A trendline of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Polls don't matter since its never according to each riding. Period. They are never scientific.
I can repeatedly state the above with uninterrupted certainty.
If I made my own polling firm I would be rolling in dough as all the current ones are a joke and use very flawed formulas to achieve their numbers.
Those poll numbers are laughable and are made in an attempt to shape public opinion.
And regardless are a poll may say it shouldn't ever alter your vote so who cares?
34% is generous. Every other poll has them at 31%. Harper's cooked.
In the U.S., some of the polls only tabulate responses from people who voted in the last election. That is something I would like to see one of our polling firms do.
Polls are one of the few ways us junkies can "keep score" of how our respective teams are doing. Next up for consideration is the fourth quarter fundraising results for each Party, which should be out soon.
"I really didn,t think we had that many people in Canada who backed Liberal corruption.Or are they just plain and simple IDIOTS."
I've often said the scariest thing in the world is an IQ of 100. But in the case of the prorogation I'm beginning to think its naivete & gullibility.
Last night I was at dinner with family, 2 engineers, one with his own business, one a senior exec in a major corporation, a retired mother-in-law from Montreal who watches TV news constantly, and a labourer.
Last week I was at a university alumni meeting with 20 or so professionals and executives.
Last weekend, at my sisters, a social worker, and my nephew who's in first year at Western, and my mom, who just reads the papers all day.
Bottom line - not a single person I spoke with knew what proroguing parliament meant, why it was done, how long this prorogation was or how often its been done or by whom.
To a man and a woman, all believed it was illegal and the reasons varied from the conservatives wanting a vacation (it was amazing how many thought all the conservative MP's were in the Bahamas), to those who thought this was an actual coup d'etat as in Cuba or Venezuela, and that there would never be another federal election. These aren't dumb people. With the exception of 3 (and one current student) all have university educations, all can balance their cheque books and all endeavour to keep up with current events.
The MSM media has completely skewed any and all reporting, and in many cases has blatantly lied and misled the Canadian people. Sadly, even well-educated and well-read Canadians seem to only "hear" what is in the MSM, and whether its laziness or a lack of interest make no effort to validate what is printed in the media or on TV.
Long term, the lesson we need to take from this is to add intense and multi-year courses in Civics, Canadian law, and Canadian history in all schools.
In the short term I'm not sure there is anything we can do. I'd like to see some in the media charged with sedition, or perhaps revoke the networks and papers charters, but that really would make us like Cuba or Venezuela. But then, maybe it was an equally irresponsible press that helped bring about the dictatorships in those countries too.
All but forgotten
we are in a recession.
Canadians are cranky and will vent where they can.
A 2 week non-stop surge by our national media generated what will be a short term 'venting'.
Boob Rae being paraded out as the King of Prorogation blunts the LibMsm message.
But after all is said and done,
they still have Iffy.
Mr It's Not My Problem.
If Harper had countered the B/S on the prorogue issue two weeks ago there would have been no drop at all. Either way like many have said already, this will blow over. There are a lot bigger fish to fry in future. (real conservative)
Calagary Junkie, all good points. Of course, the Opposition parties could always grow a backbone.
About Mr. Flanagan, why do you think he comes out and sabotages the Conservatives time and time again with controversial comments?
Iceman, that is all pretty much in the margin of error.
tao, polls are an important measure to gauge the public. Would you be saying the polls weren't important back in Dec 2008 when they were showing overwhelming support for the Conservatives against the so called coalition?
Anon, we shall see.....
bertie, some are supporting the Bloc or other opposition parties :)
Too bad the Conservatives squandered another good lead, and made themselves look mean and vindictive again.
Calgary, fourth quarter results should be good. I suspect the Liberals would have been able to make some fund-raising hay out of this.
I like that idea you had about the polling!! :)
Since the count for the protesters at the various rallies included all men, women and children(holding signs) then a turnout of 22,000 out of 33,000,000 plus people in Canada can be called a dismal flop .
As well remember some of those people at the rallies were curiosity seekers and not protesters.
Spread 22000 across Canada is not that overwhelming either.
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