Sunday, June 8, 2014

Is Hudak Peaking too Early?

I have to admit, I am having a lot of issues with the polls this election.  They are all over the map!

Progressive Conservatives up. Liberals up. Liberals leading in voter intention. No, the Progressive Conservatives leading in voter intention. Its a damn bloody mess. In fact, it gives damn bloody messes a real bad name!

So I (like I am sure most) are following to try and make sense of it all. The latest numbers seem like good news for the Progressive Conservatives, they are trending up in all areas at the expense (mostly) the Liberals.

However, looking at the region tracker of I begin to wonder if they might be peaking a day or two too early.

See below, and tell me what you think!

Peaking too soon?


Anonymous said...

Looking at the results reflecting those most likely to vote, the big picture starts to clear up...

“Examining the regional vote among likely voters, the data show that:

In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (44%) remain ahead of the PCs (27%) and NDP (26%).

In the 905 area surrounding Toronto, the Tories (43%) edge ahead of the Grits (36%) and NDP (18%).

In Southwestern Ontario, the Tories (39%) increase their lead over the NDP (31%) and Liberals (24%).

In Central Ontario, the Tories (54%) dominate over the NDP (22%) and Liberals (21%), but the sample size is small.

In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (52%) are also flying high compared to the Liberals (31%) and NDP (15%).

In Northern Ontario, the PCs (38%) are ahead of the Liberals (33%) and NDP (29%), but the sample size is small. “

In a three party race, 4o% wins, and 42% plus wins big. IMHO, it's going to be a PC win, possibly epic.

Al in Cranbrook

Ron said...

"IMHO, it's going to be a PC win, possibly epic."
Your mouth to God's ear Al.

Anonymous said...

I am astounded that the people of Ontario are unable to do basic math. 63% are obviously willing to be over-taxed and continue down the road of making sure the economy of that province continues to tank.

tao_taier said...

"In a three party race, 4o% wins, and 42% plus wins big. IMHO, it's going to be a PC win, possibly epic."

And polls are understating reality, And mean nothing if they aren't electoral riding by riding basis.

Look at the UKIP sweep and the pro Israeli hawks & free markets party in India massive sea changing triumph.

I remember being a young kid in early 90's Ontario, were words like Conservative or "worse yet" free markets were met with the utmost contempt & scorn directed at anyone who even uttered it.

THAT was my experience for over a decade even after Harper had to shake it off with a sweater vest.
Not until the stimulus spending and the demise of the coalition pushing it did it become less taboo. I feel the false blame against capitalism finally dissipating in light of all the real world evidence.

The blurry lines of the past have never been clearer. Media bias has never been so obvious.

Yet even with out access to all that information and experience, Harris got two landslide majorities for his 2 terms in office. With 1.17M private sector jobs created in that 8 year span.

You can't believe poll numbers over past success in what were vastly more obscured times were there was much less hope or knowledge. God isn't going to leave us to the wild abandons of the NDP/Libs, if only in brief to further expose their nonsense and pave the way for an even great majority freedom shortly thereafter. So chin up folks.
Don't believe the media party's propaganda.
Around the world people are jealous of the PC platform and envy our hope. They could only dream for a Hudak or Harris types.

tao_taier said...

^on a riding by riding basis.**

Something else to consider are the ones not being polled at all.

Or brought out to vote.
Here is a wikipedia snippet of my area's last bi-election results:

New Democratic Percy Hatfield votes:15,682 %61.27 +28.43

Progressive Conservative Robert de Verteuil (really nice guy, btw)
votes5,147 %20.11 -0.71

Liberal Jeewen Gill votes3,057 %11.94 -30.89

[Skipping other parties for space and relevance]

Total valid votes
^%100.00 = 25,593

Eligible voters 85,075

Those two last numbers is what I wanted you to see.
There are plenty of eligible voters out there who could make an avalanche. That leaves 59,482 potential voters. Consider the scandals and all else around the world since.

People don't stay home over a supposed platform's "math problem"(left wing BS), and ignore all else that has happened here and elsewhere.
The PC's should have even more appeal than their Federal cousins, given that we don't get tied up in foreign policy issues that the left make/burn hay/tires over.
Tim Hudak is a stark and pleasing contrast to John Red Tory. (who is running for mayor only to ensure chow gets it as Rob Ford would win even passed out on a couch! Ford is beloved there if you actually talk to people. Minus the "SoCons" who aren't even his voter base!)

So rally up and inform people! Do not assume they know what is going on.
MY OWN FATHER DIDN'T KNOW ANYTHING Tim Hudak had repeatedly stated and clarified about the 100,000 public sector jobs until I talked to him... only hours ago! He knew what needed to be done but didn't hear it come for Hudak because there is literally a media black out. Hence why he's had to repeat himself every other sentence to ensure the media fits it in at least one sound bite!

Do not wait for another to come after Hudak or Ford, this is our last chance at freedom.
Ignore the polls, I don't even give them web traffic. What other fools think or project should not deter any of us from voting for sanity.

**My daughter was climbing on my back hanging by my hair. So yeah, I skipped the preview option. and ouch.

Anonymous said...


tao_taier said...

^Thomas Sowell confronts the issue of pollsters.

Watch the whole video for it.
I didn't look for a shorter version as the context is even more telling.

tao_taier said...

Arrggh! stop reading the polls!
It is complete manipulation of reality on the ground.

Being urged to vote Liberal to keep NDP out... thanks to POLLS!

PC's running good candidates with a good platform and the most libertarian leader electable.
Though the newspaper doesn't adequately cover the PC candidate's background, so check the ontariopc website.

And still people cower!
This is nuts! get the word out and press on to get the other 59,482 potential voters! >.<

Re-tweet, re-blog and re-comment.
If Windsor can't wake up from its mindless union love (that also destroyed Detroit & bankrupt Michigan) voting for a "good" Liberal is redundant.