So, the Leader of the Official Opposition, Michael Ignatief has himself quite the tar baby here. And yes, any left-leaning readers out there, I am not being racist, rather referring to the sticky situation Mr Ignatieff has himself in.
What is this situation you ask?
If the Liberals side with the Bloc and NDP to bring down the government, this will put the brakes on any as of yet unallocated stimulus money making it out the door. I am not sure what this will do for any already allocated funds.
If Ignatieff pulls the plug because "the evil heartless Conservatives are not getting the money out the door soon enough" he will be adding a delay of at least 2 months to the process. Also, the Conservatives will hammer the three oppositions parties throughout the election campaign about putting the brakes on the "much needed" stimulus money.
The Liberals will also be hammered as opportunistic, as they head for the polls because they smell weakness in the Conservative polling numbers. The Conservatives will hammer the Liberals over this as well.
If the Liberals vote with the Government on the ways and means motion, the NDP and Bloc will hammer them about supporting the Conservatives. Though I wonder if that really means anything. The Bloc are irrelevant outside of Quebec, and the NDP are mostly irrelevant all over Canada.
The NDP are likely maneuvering to embarrass the Liberals here, as I am not sure if they will do well in this election with their numbers down, and Liberals measurably stronger with their new Leader. The NDP are hoping that my prediction will come to fruition.
My predication is that the Liberals will resort to Dion tactics, that is, loudly denounce the "heartless Conservatives" yet develop a case of the democratic flu when it comes to the actual vote. Either the whole party, or just enough members to ensure the Conservatives carry the vote.
What do you all think?
11 comments:
As of right now, I think it's a role of the dice. All I do know is that if there is an election called by the Crown Czar, he'll have one hell of a fight in my riding!
I think it is extremely unlikely that money would begin to flow again in only two months:
- week of June 15th - govt falls
- week of July 15th - election held
- week of August 15th - transition to power (if Libs win)
- week of September 30th - budget tabled.
- review of priorities and projects
- October 2009 - construction season winds down
- money resumes - November 2009
That's just a guess. Anyone else care to offer an informed timeline?
Particularly hard hit will be the forestry sector with funding only recently announced (can the Bloc ignore forestry sector jobs?).
The Conservatives must be secretly hoping these opposition idiots will pull the plug.
Not only will the public be super-pissed over another election in less than a year, they will very much resent a summer call. On top of that the Tories can slam them about the expenditure of $300 million in the middle of a recession when the government is running a huge deficit, they can also beat them up over the turning off of the stimulus tap.
This will be Harper's best bet for holding on to power.
It will be Mr.Harper's best bet to get a majority.
Why would it be up to Ignatieff to call an election..there are 2 other parties, and believe me...the coalition-is dead...DEAD!!! The NDP is broke, so.....dream on.
The same timeline as anon 10:36 comments,
would apply to changes to EI.
Eerily like the coalition of losers we saw in Dec, eh.
Dippers pass a motion on EI reforms, Libs and Bloc follow like well trained puppies, jump on board to make it the reason to bring down the government.
Dippers wear the pants, Libs put up the acceptable face, Bloc gets the goodies,
in the coalition of losers.
'the coalition-is dead...'
Oh maybe having to use the Bloc's seats to seize power is dead,
but the LibDipper coalition is waiting to happen.
Iffy calls it 'an arrangement' with the Dippers.
My thoughts exactly
http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/06/14/liberal-gutlessnesswatch-the-reckoning-hour-is-at-hand-or-something-like-that/#idc-ctools
Westwind
I agree, the two months is very optimistic, and would only be if the Conservatives were to win again.
Objective observers see that Harper is governing competently. So much of the opposition hype is so over-the-top that Canadians would see a summer election as nothing more than a blatant grab for power. Undoubtedly, the turn-out would be low and the game would be decided on the ground. There is no doubt in my mind the Tories would have the advantage in such a scenario as their voters tend to be older and more motivated. The Libs would be insane to risk it.
If Ignatieff votes non-confidence it will be for ego not principle. Cheers Fern StAlbert
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