DISCLAIMER: My intent is to generate an interesting and provocative debate on this subject. So let's debate in an honest, respectful manner.
In the next paragraphs I will try and build a case for why Canada should develop its own nuclear arsenal. I will layout the threats as I perceive them, the benefits of having a nuclear arsenal, and discuss why nuclear weapons are a viable option for the security of Canada.
Canada is surrounded by potential enemies, from the Americans to the south, to the Russians to the north. The Americans historically have launched wars and raids against Canada and other countries in North and South America. The Russians are the Russians, enemies from the cold war, no one in their right mind should trust them to be altruistic.
Currently, neither of these countries are our enemies, in fact, the Americans are our closest friends and allies. We enjoy the longest undefended border in the world, and our culture and economy are very tightly integrated. Despite this, I still can easily foresee a time when Canada and the United States will be enemies; the reason is resources and territory.
Canada is blessed in several key ways to be well positioned in the future as a global heavyweight. Canada has three key resources that could make it an attractive target for other countries:
- A large percentage of the world's remaining freshwater supply
- One of the largest and yet untapped oil and energy reserves in the world in our oil sands
- Territorial control of the vast majority of the Arctic, one of the last unexplored areas of the world.
Peak oil and peak water will start to rear its head in the near future. Oil is obviously a finite resource, and the way we use water makes fresh drinking water a finite supply as well. Canada has a large percentage of the world's available freshwater, and a very small percentage of the world's population. Soon, countries will start asking to buy our water. And when/if we say no, the relations between water rich and water poor countries will start to degrade. It doesn't seem too outlandish to envision a future where water rich countries square off with water poor countries.
I do not sure trust the US to look after our interests when their own interests collide. This is not a slight against the Americans by any means, but the first and foremost duty of any government is to look out for the welfare of their own people.
Furthermore, the vast majority of the Arctic falls within Canada's borders, though many countries wish to challenge our claim to the Arctic. The Americans, Russians, and Danes spring to mind most readily.
The Arctic is a natural resource of utmost importance. Not only is the Arctic the last unexplored area of Earth, it is believed to hold vast untapped reserves of oil, gas, and other important commodities. The wealth in the Arctic is unbelievable. In addition to all this natural wealth, should the shipping lanes in the Arctic clear; the amount of shipping that will pass through the Arctic waters will rival that of the Panama Canal.
Canada has a wealth of natural resources, strategic territory in the Arctic, and strong superpower or near superpower neighbours that will be more than happy to take what is ours if given the chance.
Given this reality, and these threats, Canada needs to do something to protect itself and maintain a strong bargaining position. Unfortunately, the cold hard facts dictate that Canada will not have the resources or the will to maintain a large standing army, navy, and air force to act as a deterrent to possible aggression. The investment required to act as a credible deterrent to the Russians and Americans will be much larger then we can afford without drastic cuts to social programs. These cuts to the social fabric may be desirable, but are simply not practical at this point in time. Canada could not sustain a CF with a budget of 50 billion a year.
A nuclear program will be much cheaper to startup and maintain over the long term then increasing DND's budget by 400% or more.
I don't really have any idea how much it costs to create, maintain, and enhance a nuclear arsenal, I do however feel it will be much less then the additional billions required to increase the size of the CF. Canada has the technological knowhow to quickly create effective nuclear weapons, likely within months. A ballistic missile program will take more time to put together, but is not as important as the bomb itself.
A strong Canadian Forces, backed with a strong nuclear deterrent will allow Canada to bargain from a position of strength, and help ensure that we don't get the short end of the stick.
